falak-analytics/port-congestion-forecaster
Port Congestion Forecaster
MAE (waiting hrs)
3.6
MAPE (occupancy)
8.9%
Congestion-event recall
0.81
R² (occupancy)
0.87
About this model
Forecasts berth occupancy and vessel waiting time at Hamad Port over a 14-day horizon using scheduled calls, AIS-derived arrival estimates, and seasonal trade patterns. Outputs congestion-risk scores per terminal to support berth planning and shipper advisories.
Intended use
Berth-window planning by terminal operators and congestion advisories for freight forwarders and government logistics dashboards.
Training data lineage
Trained on port-vessel-calls covering 38,000 vessel calls at Hamad Port from 2021 through 2025.
Limitations & bias notes
Unscheduled diversions from regional ports and severe weather closures are not modelled and cause under-prediction of waiting times. Container-terminal accuracy is stronger than for general-cargo and livestock berths where call data is sparser.
Evaluation metrics
| MAE (waiting hrs) | 3.6 |
| MAPE (occupancy) | 8.9% |
| Congestion-event recall | 0.81 |
| R² (occupancy) | 0.87 |
Try it
Live sandboxhorizon=12&profile=weekday_peak
fixtureFeedback
Owning entity
- Updated
- 2026-06-25
- Latest version
- 1.2.0
- License
- Commercial Paid
- Access
- Open
Trained on
port-vessel-calls →