motc/metro-ridership-forecaster
Metro Ridership Forecaster
MAPE (station-day)
7.4%
MAE (riders/day)
612
Coverage of 90% PI
0.89
MAPE (event days)
12.8%
About this model
Station-level daily ridership forecasts for all 37 Doha Metro stations across the Red, Green, and Gold lines, with a 28-day horizon. Encodes school terms, Ramadan schedules, national-day events, and stadium fixtures as regressors.
Intended use
Rolling-stock scheduling, station staffing plans, and event-day service design by MOTC and the metro operator.
Training data lineage
Fitted on metro-ridership-daily tap-in aggregates from network opening through 2025, with event flags from mega-event-attendance-history.
Limitations & bias notes
Newly opened or newly gated stations lack history and inherit line-level priors for their first quarter, widening intervals. One-off mega events without precedent (first-time concerts, new venues) are systematically under-forecast.
Evaluation metrics
| MAPE (station-day) | 7.4% |
| MAE (riders/day) | 612 |
| Coverage of 90% PI | 0.89 |
| MAPE (event days) | 12.8% |
Try it
Live sandboxhorizon=12
fixtureFeedback
Owning entity
- Updated
- 2026-05-28
- Latest version
- 1.3.0
- License
- Open
- Access
- Open