npc/labour-demand-forecaster
Labour Demand Forecaster
MAPE (1-quarter ahead)
4.8%
MAPE (4-quarter ahead)
9.6%
Coverage of 90% interval
0.88
Sectors covered
18
Occupation groups
42
About this model
Quarterly labour demand forecasts by sector and occupation group, built on Labour Force Survey microdata, establishment census aggregates, and work-permit flows. Produces 4-quarter-ahead demand indices with uncertainty bands, powering workforce planning for national programs. Referenced in the Third National Development Strategy monitoring framework.
Intended use
Workforce and skills planning by government entities: projecting sectoral hiring demand, stress-testing Qatarization targets, and sizing training programs. Not for decisions about individual workers.
Training data lineage
Trained on Labour Force Survey Microdata (waves 2019–Q2 2026) joined with Establishment Census Aggregates and administrative work-permit series.
Limitations & bias notes
Forecast quality degrades for occupation groups with fewer than ~800 sampled workers per wave. Structural breaks (mega-event construction cycles) are handled with intervention terms that require analyst review. Data drift is monitored quarterly; retraining is recommended whenever the LFS weighting scheme is revised.
Evaluation metrics
| MAPE (1-quarter ahead) | 4.8% |
| MAPE (4-quarter ahead) | 9.6% |
| Coverage of 90% interval | 0.88 |
| Sectors covered | 18 |
| Occupation groups | 42 |
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2.0(1)Owning entity
- Updated
- 2026-04-20
- Latest version
- v2.1
- License
- Government Internal Reuse
- Access
- Gated