mcit/event-attendance-forecaster
Event Attendance Forecaster
MAPE (ticketed events)
9.6%
MAPE (free events)
17.8%
MAE (attendees)
1,840
R²
0.84
About this model
Gradient-boosted regressor that forecasts attendance for national events, league fixtures, national-day celebrations, exhibitions, and concerts, across major Qatari venues. Features include ticket-sales pace, competition tier, weather window, school calendar, and historical venue draw.
Intended use
Capacity planning, transport coordination, and staffing decisions for event organisers and government coordination committees.
Training data lineage
Trained on mega-event-attendance-history with demographic context from population-projections for catchment-size features.
Limitations & bias notes
First-of-kind events with no comparable history fall back to venue-tier averages and carry wide intervals. Free-entry community events are harder to forecast than ticketed ones because sales-pace features are absent.
Evaluation metrics
| MAPE (ticketed events) | 9.6% |
| MAPE (free events) | 17.8% |
| MAE (attendees) | 1,840 |
| R² | 0.84 |
Try it
Live sandboxhorizon=12
fixtureFeedback
Owning entity
- Updated
- 2026-01-29
- Latest version
- 1.1.0
- License
- Government Internal Reuse
- Access
- Open