npc/cpi-nowcaster
CPI Nowcaster
MAE (headline, pp)
0.11
MAPE (divisions)
6.8%
Directional accuracy
0.88
Coverage of 80% PI
0.82
About this model
Nowcasts the monthly Consumer Price Index for Qatar up to three weeks before official publication by combining retail scanner data with field price quotes. Produces headline CPI and twelve COICOP division-level estimates with uncertainty bands calibrated against five years of realised prints.
Intended use
Early-warning input for NPC statisticians and Ministry of Finance economists preparing inflation briefings; not a replacement for the official CPI release.
Training data lineage
Trained and back-tested on the cpi-price-quotes collection covering 2019-2025 monthly price observations across 48 retail outlets and administered-price schedules.
Limitations & bias notes
Divisions with thin outlet coverage (recreation, education) show wider errors and occasional sign flips in month-on-month estimates. Structural price events such as administered fuel-price revisions are not anticipated and require analyst override.
Evaluation metrics
| MAE (headline, pp) | 0.11 |
| MAPE (divisions) | 6.8% |
| Directional accuracy | 0.88 |
| Coverage of 80% PI | 0.82 |
Try it
Live sandboxhorizon=12
fixtureEvaluation only: gated models run against redacted sample data until your entity's entitlement is approved.
Feedback
Owning entity
- Updated
- 2026-06-14
- Latest version
- 1.2.0
- License
- Government Internal Reuse
- Access
- Gated
Trained on
cpi-price-quotes →