hbku/air-quality-forecaster
Air Quality Forecaster
MAE PM2.5 (µg/m³, 24h)
6.8
MAE PM10 (µg/m³, 24h)
18.4
AQI-band accuracy (72h)
0.81
Dust-event recall
0.79
About this model
Produces 72-hour PM2.5 and PM10 forecasts for each national air-quality monitoring station, blending station history with meteorological drivers including shamal wind events. Outputs hourly concentrations plus AQI-band probabilities for public-advisory thresholds.
Intended use
Public health advisories, outdoor-event planning, and school activity guidance driven by station-level dust and particulate forecasts.
Training data lineage
Trained on the air-quality-stations archive of hourly measurements from 2020 through 2025 with ERA5-derived meteorological covariates.
Limitations & bias notes
Rapid-onset shamal dust fronts are captured with a lag of two to four hours, under-forecasting the initial spike. Stations near active construction corridors show localised bias not explained by the meteorological features.
Evaluation metrics
| MAE PM2.5 (µg/m³, 24h) | 6.8 |
| MAE PM10 (µg/m³, 24h) | 18.4 |
| AQI-band accuracy (72h) | 0.81 |
| Dust-event recall | 0.79 |
Try it
Live sandboxhorizon=12
fixtureFeedback
Owning entity
- Updated
- 2026-04-30
- Latest version
- 1.2.0
- License
- Open
- Access
- Open
Trained on
air-quality-stations →